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2008INTERNET投资指南-nothing_but_net-jp_morgen_2008-EN-312P

【资料成文时间】： 2008.1
【语言】：英文
【页数】：312
【何人（公司）所著】：JP摩根
【文件格式】：PDF
【文件原名】：Nothing But Net  2008 Internet Investment Guide
【摘要或目录】：
2007 saw Internet companies outperform the broader stock market,
as the HHH rose ~14%, vs. a ~5% rise in the S&P 500. We believe
some of the factors that drove F’07 outperformance will persist into
F’08, and thus expect the sector to outperform the broader market.
• Expect 34% EPS Growth, vs. 8% for the S&P 500. We expect
revenue growth to decelerate to 21.2% in F’08, from 25.6% in
F’07. We are projecting 34% earnings growth for our coverage
universe, compared to 8% for the S&P 500.
• Expect Blended CPM Pricing Growth Rate to Accelerate. We
think blended CPM pricing bottomed out in F’07. We expect
tighter offline inventory and better monetization techniques will
lead to a re-acceleration of growth in F’08.
• We Project Global Search Revenue to Hit $60B by 2011. We
are raising our F’08 global search revenue estimate to $30.5B,
from $26.2B, driven by strong volume trends, better-than-expected
monetization, and continued robust growth in Continental Europe.
We expect the global search market to reach $60B by 2011,
growing at a 28% CAGR over the next four years.
• Global Consumer Growth Should Benefit Internet Companies.
World GDP growth has outpaced US growth in recent years, and a
projected 3-year CAGR of 6.5% for emerging economies means
hundreds of millions of new consumers. We think large Internet
companies’ global reach means they’ll benefit from this rising tide.
• M&A Market Likely to Remain Healthy. The five biggest
companies in our universe generated $8.8B in FCF in F’07, a
number we project will grow to $12.5B in F’08. While some of
that cash should continue to fund share repurchases, we think a
significant portion of the incremental cash flow is likely to lead to
continued M&A in the sector.
• Top Picks. The above trends translate into our top Overweight
ideas
Table of Contents
Key Investment Themes ..........................................................5
Dot.Khan’s Top Ten for 2008.................................................13
U.S. Sector Outlooks..............................................................15
China Outlook.........................................................................99
Amazon.com, Neutral ($92.85) ............................................121
Blue Nile, Neutral ($74.16) ...................................................129
CNET Networks, Neutral ($8.90)..........................................136
eBay, Overweight ($34.49) ...................................................144
Expedia, Overweight ($32.56)..............................................154
Google, Overweight ($710.84) .............................................161
HouseValues, Underweight ($2.94) .....................................169
InfoSpace, Neutral ($18.96)..................................................177
InnerWorkings, Neutral ($18.40)..........................................183
Liberty Interactive, Neutral ($19.79) ....................................190
Mercadolibre, Overweight ($72.85) .....................................199
Monster Worldwide, Overweight ($33.91)...........................208
Move, Inc., Neutral ($2.70) ...................................................215
Omniture, Overweight ($34.95)............................................222
Priceline, Overweight ($118.23)...........................................229
Shutterfly, Overweight ($27.38)...........................................239
ValueClick, Overweight ($23.39)..........................................247
Yahoo!, Overweight ($23.96) ...............................................255
Baidu, Overweight ($399.67)................................................267
China Finance Online, Overweight ($23.75) .......................272
NetEase, Neutral ($19.33).....................................................276
Ninetowns, Underweight ($3.45) .........................................281
Shanda, Overweight ($34.39)...............................................285
Sina, Neutral ($45.50) ...........................................................290
Sohu, Overweight ($56.58)...................................................294
The9, Overweight ($23.50) ...................................................299

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investors in stock market.